Archive for Finances

UNION BUDGET-2025 AND THE TURBULENT CIRCUMSTANCES

The upcoming Union Budget 2025 presents a complex scenario, marked by diverse challenges, paradoxes, and uncertainties in both domestic and international contexts. It is both fascinating and daunting to consider the myriad forces shaping India’s economic landscape today.

DOMESTIC PARADOXES AND CONTRADICTIONS

1. Economic Growth vs. Income Disparity
India remains one of the few nations with a GDP growth rate exceeding 5%, a commendable achievement by any standard. Yet, this overall growth masks a troubling reality: significant discrepancies in per capita income, with the gap between the wealthy and the poor widening, as many experts have highlighted.

2. Taxation vs. Freebies
On the one hand, the government is striving to generate revenue through increased taxation—both direct and indirect. On the other, political parties, across the spectrum, are making lofty promises of freebies (commonly referred to as revdis) during elections. This creates a precarious balance between fiscal discipline and populist pressures.

3. Unemployment vs. Employable Workforce
Unemployment levels remain alarmingly high, yet industries across sectors are grappling with a shortage of skilled, employable labor. This disconnect between job seekers and industry requirements reflects deep structural challenges in the education and skill development systems.

GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTIONS

Domestic challenges are further compounded by international developments and technological upheavals:

1. Geopolitical Tensions
The ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East continue to create global instability, affecting trade and economic alliances. Meanwhile, the resurgence of leaders like Donald Trump signals a potential shift towards protectionism, threatening to replace free trade regimes with restrictive policies.

2. Technological Advancements and A.I.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing industries and business processes, enhancing efficiency but rendering many jobs obsolete. The resulting disruption risks exacerbating unemployment on a massive scale.

3. Crypto-currencies and Financial Stability
The rise of Crypto-currencies poses significant challenges to exchange rate stability and, by extension, international trade. Governments worldwide are grappling with ways to regulate this emerging financial ecosystem.

THE PATH AHEAD: BUDGET EXPECTATIONS AND NATIONAL PRIORITIES

Given these complexities, the Union Budget 2025 must strike a delicate balance between addressing immediate concerns and laying the groundwork for sustainable growth. However, past trends suggest that we may witness another budget characterized by incremental changes and rhetorical flourishes—a temporary reprieve rather than a transformative vision.

India’s path forward requires a collective effort and a shared vision for progress. The true need of the hour includes:

1. Fostering Growth with National Pride
A renewed emphasis on hard work, innovation, and national pride can serve as a unifying force, driving collective progress.

2. Addressing Structural Challenges
Solutions must target foundational issues such as income disparity, unemployment, and skill development to create a more equitable and robust economy.

3. Harnessing Internal Strengths
India possesses immense talent, resources, and potential. A united approach, leveraging these strengths, can empower the country to overcome challenges with resilience and determination.

4. Focusing on Larger Goals
It is imperative to shift focus from divisive internal conflicts to addressing larger national and global challenges. Building confidence among the masses and fostering unity are essential to navigate this thorny journey.

The challenges are undoubtedly significant, but so too are the opportunities. With clear vision and collective effort, India can rise above these turbulent circumstances, paving the way for a brighter and more prosperous future.

ARE WE ADDRESSING THE UNEMPLOYMENT ISSUE AS A SECTOR?

Yes, we must address the complex and concerning issues surrounding unemployment, which has, until now, remained an undefined sector. The problem of unemployment poses a huge challenge, with multiple dimensions, varied complexities, and significant impacts on economic development, affecting a large part of our population. It requires special attention, with a concentrated, strategic, and effective set of programs and actions. To address its challenges effectively and efficiently, it must be recognized as a distinct sector and, hence, deserves to be treated as such.

BACKGROUND

1.Lack of Reliable Data:

While we acknowledge the size and complexity of this sector, we do not have an exact figure for the number of unemployed citizens within the employable age group.

2.Disguised Unemployment:

This sector includes disguised unemployment, meaning that for a task that could be done by X people, X++ individuals are employed. It also includes people engaged in household chores or random tasks and those idling away their time. Disguised unemployment is especially prevalent in rural areas, where many family members work on farms out of necessity because they have no other gainful employment options.

3.Lack of Comprehensive Information:

In fact, we lack detailed information on the unemployed, disguised unemployed, or semi-unemployed individuals. Information such as their age group, education level, and rural or urban status would provide valuable insight to better target interventions for those suffering from unemployment. Though challenging, collecting this data is critical, as without reliable estimates, it is nearly impossible to design effective schemes to address the unemployment issue.

4. Ineffective Government Efforts:

The government’s approach has often been perceived as random, with numerous schemes introduced but lacking effective implementation. Far too many initiatives are launched half-heartedly, resulting in limited impact.

THE BASIC STRATEGY CURRENTLY DEPLOYED

1.Infrastructure Development:

Planners are aggressively focusing on developing better infrastructure and large-scale industries, including plants, ports, roads, and buildings, to generate direct and indirect employment and provide more opportunities.

2.Support for MSMEs:

Planners are also convinced that Medium, Small, and Micro Enterprises (MSMEs) have significant potential to create jobs, and they are working to support the growth of the MSME sector. A variety of incentives have been rolled out for this sector, and the MSME Act has been enacted to protect the interests of these businesses. Relevant amendments have been made to exempt MSMEs from complex regulatory requirements and help them compete effectively with larger, more organized sectors. Additionally, MSMEs are offered financial support, subsidies, and priority at various levels.

3.Encouraging Self-Employment and Startups:

Efforts to encourage self-employment and startups have gained momentum in recent years, with encouraging results. Various schemes have been introduced, and a network of incubation centers has been established to foster entrepreneurship.

4.Skill Development:

Skill development initiatives aim to create a more employable workforce by establishing technical and vocational education institutions and offering training programs. This addresses the industry’s concerns about the lack of a sufficiently skilled labor force emerging from the education sector.

5.Labor and Finance Department Initiatives:

The Labor Department has been regulating employment conditions, while the Finance Department has announced various incentives. Many other departments have also joined the effort to tackle unemployment.

6.Banking Sector Support:

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken several steps to encourage the MSME sector, mandating commercial and cooperative banks to provide affordable financial support through appropriate schemes. Micro-financing through regular banks and non-banking financial institutions has been targeted to support the unorganized sector.

7.Public Perception:

There is a general belief among both the government and the public that significant efforts are being made to tackle unemployment.

EVALUATION OF THE EFFORTS MADE SO FAR

It would be unfair to claim that no efforts are being made to address the unemployment issue. In fact, all departments of the Central and State Governments are making concerted efforts to extend a helping hand wherever opportunities for employment generation arise. Numerous incentives and schemes have been introduced to create job openings and improve employability, especially among the youth. National awareness campaigns and drives aimed at growth and development are targeted at providing more gainful employment.

However, several issues need special attention:

1.Lack of Focus:

Employment generation is handled by multiple ministries, each with its own unique priorities, which leads to a fragmented approach. This lack of coordination reduces the overall focus on addressing unemployment effectively.

2.Labor Laws:
The Labor Department is more concerned with labor laws and their enforcement. Unfortunately, these laws are numerous and often so stringent that they discourage employers from hiring more workers. For instance, the prescribed minimum wages are often too high for MSMEs to afford, and the legal formalities involved in terminating a worker or shutting down a business can be cumbersome. Despite promises to relax labor laws, little concrete action has been taken in this area.

3.Challenges for MSMEs:
The Ministry of Industry enacts laws to protect MSMEs, but these protections are often so overly stringent that large businesses prefer not to engage with MSMEs. For example, under the MSME Act, buyers are required to pay interest rates that are three times the prevailing rates if payments are delayed—this provision discourages businesses from engaging with smaller enterprises.

4.Banking Sector’s Disinterest:

Although banks follow RBI instructions on paper, they are often disinterested in working with the MSME sector, as the profit margins are smaller compared to larger businesses. This despite the fact that MSMEs have greater potential for job creation.

5.Slow Progress:

The ease of doing business index for India reveals that despite ambitious promises and efforts, the journey toward providing more employment has been slow and discouraging.

SUGGESTIONS

1.Establishing a Separate Ministry for Employment Generation:

To address the unemployment issue more effectively, there needs to be a dedicated, strategic, and focused approach. At present, there is no coordinating ministry at either the state or central level for employment generation. The issue deserves a “Mission Mode Priority,” but in reality, there is a lack of central coordination.

2.Key Tasks for the Ministry:

A.Labor Front:

· Simplify the long list of required registrations and permissions, creating common forms and procedures for various registrations.
· Consider introducing different scales of minimum wages for different sectors (large, medium, small, micro, and unorganized).
· Initiate a data collection exercise to regularly track the number of unemployed individuals and the employment generated, maintaining this information on a periodical basis.
· Make it simple to close down a unit or to reduce the workforce employed in case of justifiable reasons. Criteria for clearly refining justifiable business be fixed with appropriate adjudicating authority in place.

B.Industry Front:

· Address the differences between the medium-scale and small-scale sectors. The medium-scale sector is large enough to compete with larger industries, while the small and micro sectors are too small and less organized to take full advantage of incentives.
· Consider revising the definition of the MSME sector, grouping the medium-scale sector with large industries and offering separate incentives and priorities for the small and micro sectors.
· Address the issue of sick industries by reviving schemes like the Gujarat Body for Industrial Relief (GBIFR), which provided strategic help to revive viable businesses.

C.General Recommendations:

· Despite recognizing that India has a surplus of labor and a scarcity of capital, most incentives are based on investments rather than on employment generation. More incentives should focus on generating employment, improving skills, upgrading quality and technology, and offering relevant education.

· For financial support, the Reserve Bank and Government should ensure that separate branches of a large bank or separate small banks and cooperative banks should be set-up exclusively for the small and micro sectors so that, proper monitory and effective implementation is ensured.

CONCLUSION:

Addressing unemployment requires a multi-faceted, strategic, and coordinated effort. While there are positive initiatives underway, more focused action, clear data, and a dedicated ministry is needed to effectively combat unemployment and make lasting improvements. By acknowledging the sector’s complexities and addressing the issues through targeted policies, India can create a more robust employment ecosystem for its population.

ARTIFICIALITY IN EXCHANGE RATES

The foreign exchange rates have always puzzled me.

A few questions remain inadequately answered.

For instance, on independence, one rupee was equal to one dollar and was quite near to being equal to one pound. Isn’t it surprising that despite being a very poor nation we had a very favorable exchange rate. It meant that it made imports more attractive.

But we could not sustain the same conversion rate. Rupee got drastically hammered and soon enough even before the fifties we saw the exchange rate moving against Rupee.
In the international market, during those days we followed a fixed exchange rate. Our imports continued to rise and the exports could not match up, leading to huge trade deficits.

The pressure to devaluate Rupee went on increasing because, the demand for Dollars was very high as against the demand for Rupee. This led to a series of devaluation until the nineties when Rupee was priced at Rs.32 against the Dollar.

It was in late nineties, that a decision was taken to make Rupee partly convertible. For revenue transactions it was freely convertible except some restrictions. And for capital transactions stricter restrictions were placed.

Today, the exchange rates are staggering at Rs.82+ against a dollar and 100+ against a pound.

If we look at the purchase power parity the exchange rate would be somewhere near Rs.25+ against a dollar and Rs.30+ against a pound.

Does it mean that after independence India has performed so badly as compared to USA and UK? Answer is obviously No.

There are a few reasons which I have in mind for the drop in the exchange rate:

1. The exports of some scarce materials at very low price which were taking place prior to independence seem to have been reduced or stopped.

2. To catch up technologically and to meet bare essential needs, we have allowed more imports.

3. The strong currencies have created huge demand for their currencies through soft paddling and allowing the tax havens to grow and prosper. We are aware that most of these tax havens provide almost zero tax, nearly complete secrecy about the monitory transactions and they are fully blessed and under the control of USA and UK. The large transactions of illegal trade and corruption tainted money are routed through these tax heavens, creating a spike in the demand for dollars and pounds as compared to most of the other currencies including naturally rupee.

I think the third reason plays the most important role in pushing down the value of rupee in international trade. Surprisingly, almost all trading companies prefer to trade in the “popular” currencies, which further accelerate the downward pressure. Making any other currency “popular” without resorting to unfair means as explained above seems to be an almost impossible task. The developing countries will have to live with these artificially padded exchange rates God knows for how long.

What say you?

Part-2 “AND A FAIR GAME AT THAT”

Part-1
“ULTIMATELY, IT’S A GAME THAT WE CHOOSE TO PLAY”

Part-2
“AND A FAIR GAME AT THAT”

In part one I merely summarized that life is a game and one should carry on the honest, good and ethical KARMA and offer the same to Lord Krishna. Our duty is to perform KARMA that is destined for us, without worrying about the future, which is in the hands of The Lord Krishna.

This sounds simple but in reality we make our life highly complex by entering into far too many races in the game of life. Race to earn more money, race to have a social status, race to keep our family happy, race to marry the most suitable loved partner, race to acquire lot of power, fame and wealth. We want to achieve all ASAP. We are in a hurry. And the race is highly competitive. We are willing to easily sacrifice even morals and ethics. We stop trusting everybody and lose no opportunity of back stabbing.

Such feelings, situations and mindset, if not prevented from going out of control, would lead to anarchy. No society can sustain and progress unless there is some discipline in adhering to certain rules, dos and don’ts with standard sets of morals and ethics.

Wise people of earlier generation of the sapiens therefore created the wonderful concept of God and basically stated that good behavior will be rewarded and bad behavior will be punished by God. The idea was wonderfully marketed by the saints. They delivered lectures, created stories and poems, wrote numerous scholarly, exhaustive, innovative and still simple scriptures. This movement led to different versions in different parts of the world in which the same concept was marketed and as the time passed, they got to be known as different religions.

Unfortunately, it is a fact that the fear of God and faith in God gets shaken since the mad race to achieve the targets and attain worldly success lures even the best of us to enter this unhealthy competition.

For an individual it is not possible to exist without performing his KARMA and wise people try to stay out of the races and do a solo run because, they realize that life is a game and wining or loosing does not make any difference in the overall scheme of things in the universe. They enjoy the game to the fullest non the less because that is your KARMA.

What say you ?

“ULTIMATELY, IT’S A GAME THAT WE CHOOSE TO PLAY”

There are a few questions that keep propping up in our mind. For seeking answers to the same, we set our mind, our intellect, our experiences, our observations, our believes, our prejudices etc all in a pot churn them and still crave to find a satisfactory answer.

One such question is :

Why a person after having earned tens and thousands crore of rupees keep amassing more and more wealth despite knowing that ultimately at the end of life he or she is not going to carry any up. Even after perhaps knowing very well that money, wealth is not everything in life.

After a bit of churning my mind I tend to feel that in actual practice, more by default than by design people behave as if life ultimately is the game that we play. We as sapiens are good at developing imaginations and we set up various races. This thought came to my mind while playing my favorite game of “Temple Run” on my tablet. One imagines oneself as the person on the track who runs, crosses hurdles, gains points and ultimately falters which ends the game. We immediately set up the next race with an attempt to score more points.

In actual life, we being sapiens even set up more than one race simultaneously. Race to earn more money, race to have a social status, race to keep our family happy, race to marry the most suitable loved partner, race to acquire lot of power and so many such races.

And , if we take life as a game, like the one on our mobile, in which one can run simultaneous races then life continues to be interesting. If you fail to score in a particular race, you can try again or you concentrate more on the other games or set up the race again.

In such situation, one does not feel excessively happy nor excessively sad by winning or losing a particular race since, one understands that there are many games that he or she is playing and many a times you can set up the race again.
Interestingly, this matches quite well with the KARMA theory propagated by Lord Krishna in GITA.

Why worry because ultimately, it’s all in a game.